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Shares to remain volatile as trade war heats up

Shane Oliver - Investors should expect more sharemarket volatility over the next year as the trade war between the US and China ratchets up, according to AMP Capital.

 

 

In a recent blog post, the fund manager’s head of investment strategy and chief economist, Shane Oliver, said the US–China trade war had escalated again in August and new tariffs had come into force on 1 September.

“This follows the breakdown in trade talks between the two countries in May, and consequently, President Trump announced new tariffs on China in early August,” Mr Oliver said.

“More recently, the situation escalated as China retaliated, and the US then retaliated and so on.”

Mr Oliver said despite this amplification of the trade war, a deal between the two countries was likely to be reached as consumer confidence in the US economy could be affected if the situation went any further.

“The impact has not really hit consumers in the US and globally yet, as while tariff rates have gone up, they haven’t been that onerous; but if they continue, they will have more of an impact on consumers, and on products such as electronic goods coming into the US,” he said.

“There’s been a decline in business confidence and a decline in business investment, and likewise we’ve seen a decline in the Chinese economy and their exports to the US, so it is beginning to have a negative impact.”

Mr Oliver added that it would be harder to reach a deal now given trust had been broken on both sides, but that President Trump was clearly more committed to reaching one given the trade war was starting to affect the sharemarket.

“While it may be taking longer, ultimately we think a deal will be reached because President Trump wants to be re-elected next year and he may struggle to get re-elected if he lets the US economy slide into recession,” he said.

“Investors should expect more volatility and falls in sharemarkets along the way, but once a deal is reached and central banks around the world ease up on monetary policy, that should help sharemarkets on a six- to 12-month time horizon.”

 

 

Sarah Kendell
10 September 2019
smsfadviser.com

 


Sam El Shammaa

Sam El Shammaa

Director/Financial Planner

For more than 20 years, Sam has been a financial planner helping individuals and families achieve their financial planning goals, by providing advice on Investment Planning; Insurance Planning; Tax Planning; Retirement Planning; and Estate Planning. Working with a network of highly skilled professionals in Sydney he is dedicated to providing high-quality advice and integrated wealth management solutions that simplify and enhance the quality of his clients' lives.

Sam established his own firm in 1997 and has overseen its steady development and growth. Attention to detail, good listening skills and great empathy are symbols of his appreciation by his clients. He has built long-term relationships with his growing client base and aims to provide excellent customer service.

Sam began his financial planning career in 1993 after completing a Bachelor of Science degree in 1991. Since this time he has accumulated many professional qualifications such as:

Sam has volunteered with the Cancer Council of NSW and can be seen almost every year volunteering or participating in the 7 bridges walk.

Away from the business, he enjoys spending weekends with his son. He is also a football (soccer) tragic and is a massive Chelsea FC fan.



George Pereira

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Having worked for national financial planning companies in the past, George has extensive experience in the provision of advice in risk insurance, investments and retirement planning and is focused on forming long-term relationships with his clients.

George has been awarded a Masters of Commerce (Financial Planning) and a Bachelor of Commerce through University of Western Sydney as well as having the Diploma of Financial Services (Financial Planning).


Jane Lim

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Jane entered the financial services industry in 2006, and worked with big blue-chip financial companies such as Count Financial Limited and AMP Financial Planning Pty Ltd.

She holds a Master's degree in Applied Finance through Macquarie University, and she is a member of the Million Dollar Round Table.

Being a self-confessed "tennis nut", Jane spends many weeknights in the tennis court, and is a frequent member of Sydney's Eastern Suburbs Tennis Competition.

Being a highly motivated professional, Jane is always eager to help her clients on a wide range of financial planning needs.

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